Tax & Financial Consulting Services
The USD is Ready for its Next Major Move
Karibu (Welcome) G&G Readers,
One month, investors think the U.S. dollar is headed into the toilet and that it'll be worthless in no time.
The next month, they think the opposite. They think the U.S. dollar is the only safe haven out there when everything else in the investment world is headed into the toilet.
Investors thought the world was going to hell in late 2008 and March 2009. So they clamored for dollars… and the dollar hit new highs. Today, with fears about Europe and the euro, investors have clamored for dollars again.
I believe times are about to change for the dollar.
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Watch Out Below!
It's time for the dollar to fall again.
The main reason is simple… At the moment, there's nobody left to buy dollars. Anyone who wants the U.S. dollar already has it.
Let me tell you a few ways I track this…
First is "sentiment." In short, when sentiment reaches an extreme, it's time to consider doing the opposite. Right now, investor sentiment surrounding the dollar is about as optimistic as it gets.
Sentiment about the dollar has only been more optimistic than today just three times in the last five years. And in all three instances, it marked a peak in the dollar.
It is possible that sentiment (as measured by Jason Goepfert's www.SentimenTrader.com) could reach a higher level – that the peak in the dollar is not here yet. But we should be close.
While sentiment for the dollar is at a high for this year, sentiment for all the other major currencies (except the yen) versus the U.S. dollar is at lows for the year.
** Side note: Our GGIS Portfolio gave a recommendation back in August to take advantage of this move … and as of this writing it is up 184%.
Each time dollar sentiment got this high, we saw a major short-term peak in the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index fell dramatically over the following two months.
The story is the same when you look at the actual dollar "commitments of traders"… Large speculators currently have their smallest bets this year on the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, and the Aussie dollar.
** Sidebar: Some of you reading this have no clue on how other foreign currencies have a big effect on how the Dollar and the US Stock market moves. (See G&G newsletter archive for Sep 23, 2011 issue, “You’re Insane If you only invest in the US.)”
Based on the commitments of traders, investors have finally given up on all of these currencies versus the dollar. Based on this, the next move in all these currencies versus the dollar should be up.
The U.S. dollar is not a good value right now… paying no interest. It is widely loved as a safe haven, at the moment. And so far in October, the U.S. Dollar Index is down. So the trend might be starting to confirm the fundamentals.
It's the opposite of the three things I look for in an investment: cheap, hated, and in an uptrend.
With “HISTORY” as my guide, the U.S. dollar index could lose 5%-10% of its value over the next several months.
But what's the best way to bet against the dollar right now? Do you actually want to buy the euro?
Heckkkkkk No! The safest way to bet against the dollar is to own … you guessed it right… gold. When the value of the dollar falls, the value of gold (priced in dollars) goes up. And since silver is gold’s stepchild … it wouldn’t hurt to buy some of this as well.
I’m seeing my favorite signs line up for a coming fall in the U.S. dollar over the next several months … So trade accordingly.
If you want to know how to implement a strategy to best take advantage of this next big move in the USD, or want to know more about the GGIS portfolio and you are not already a GGIS subscriber?
Sign up today! What are you waiting on?
As always…feel free to pass this information on to anyone you think is interested in increasing their tax & financial IQ.
If you need a one-on-one consultation to learn how to implement these investments or any other on the GGIS portfolio, feel free to contact me to setup an appointment.
If you missed any past G&G newsletters, click on link below for the archive:
Metta (Wishing You the Best)
Asar Maat Ra Gray
Tax & Financial Consultant, RFC
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LEGAL NOTICE: This work is based on what I’ve learned as a financial researcher and analyst based SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what I've learned as a financial consultant. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. Nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice.